Thursday, September 17, 2009

9/12 crowd estimates - more lies from the far right

Everyone who is a professional in counting crowds has provided an estimate of 100,000 persons or less attending this event. All of the estimates you are using were made by people who have no experience or expertise in estimating crowd sizes.

The only reason the size of the crowd matters is because there has been so much duplicity from the TP crowd regarding attendance. The only credible sources are the independent sources, which universally reported attendance of 100,000 or less.

I really don’t think you do yourself any favors by pretending that this gathering was massive – it was large, but it hardly indicates any sort of significant electoral shift. This gathering of fringe elements serves to remind progressives that we must remain vigilant – but overstating the size of the crowd only proves how little the right cares for factual information.

4 comments:

  1. What planet are you living on ? Just the Numbers from the Metro riders for that Saturday are a quarter million. Indiana University using a computer program puts the crowd at 1.2 million. A woman at the National Parks service said it was the largest crowd they had ever seen. *I* personally spoke with a DC Police officer during the rally, and he informed me that his superiors were using 1.5 million in their estimates.

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  2. Hi -

    I tried to post this over at PJM (as Skylark(, but am still in moderation. So, just in case:

    -------------------------------------------

    By the way, walkafyre, I have to question whether that “unofficial estimate” tweet was really made at 9:43 ET, despite the time stamp.

    http://twitter.com/dcfireems/status/3936606105

    I mean, aside from the problem of making any sort of estimate two hours before the march started (according to you), why would they be treating “several injuries and illnesses on the Mall” hours before anyone was there?

    Looking at more tweets:

    http://twitter.com/dcfireems

    Why would they write this nearly an hour BEFORE the rally on the Mall started?

    “# UPDATE – from the mall & grounds of US Capitol – only 2 transports so far – many evaluations – crowds still large, but scattered

    11:08 AM Sep 12th from web”

    Many evaluations? Crowd at the mall and Capitol grounds STILL large? An hour before the rally started?

    How about this, only half an hour into the event?

    “# UPDATE- event scheduled to end around 4p – crowds still heavy but scattering – DC F&EMS on duty standing by – EMS transported 3 more

    12:34 PM Sep 12th from mobile web”

    Crowds STILL heavy at 12:30? Scattering so soon?

    And then after that? Nothing. Why, if the event had just begun?

    ————————————

    My guess is that the time stamp is just off by a few hours.

    To test my theory, I looked at a few other tweets. For instance, on the morning of September 11:

    “# media line updated – 202 673 3700 – DC F&EMS has NO info about CNN report of activity on Potomac River – DC F&EMS has not been dispatched

    7:34 AM Sep 11th from web

    # DC F&EMS is NOT involved and has NOT been dispatched to any incidents in or around the Potomac River

    7:27 AM Sep 11th from web”

    Well, we know that CNN did not report this “activity on Potomac River” at 7:00 or 7:30 am, but at 10:am ET:

    http://archives.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0909/11/cnr.02.html

    Scrolling down, we see some very touching reminders of the events of 9/11/01:

    “# Shanksville, Pa – never forget 7:01 AM Sep 11th from web”

    “# Pentagon – never forget 6:35 AM Sep 11th from web”

    “# never forget 5:48 AM Sep 11th from mobile web?”

    Notice that they choose different, odd times for each post? As it turns out, they are almost exactly three hours to the minute behind the times those actual events occurred in Shanksville, at the Pentagon, and in NYC.

    Hmm, rather compelling evidence that the time stamp on these tweets was three hours behind the actual Eastern zone time.

    Which means the DC Fire Department likely tweeted its “unofficial estimate” at 12:43 ET, when the event was fully underway.

    Makes it somewhat more reasonable, doesn’t it?
    Sep 17, 2009 - 9:48 pm

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  3. I also posted this:

    -------------------------------

    walkafyre @33:

    Well except that Politico interviewed the Fire Dept rep on September 14, two days AFTER the protest:

    “But the day of the rally, Piringer unofficially told one reporter that he thought between 60,000 and 75,000 people had shown up.

    ‘It was in no way an official estimate,’ he said.

    We asked Piringer whether there were enough protesters to fill the National Mall, as depicted in the photograph.

    ‘It was an impressive crowd,’ he said. But after marching down Pennsylvania Avenue to the Capitol, the crowd ‘only filled the Capitol grounds, maybe up to Third Street,’ he said.”

    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/sep/14/blog-posting/blogger-claim-photo-shows-millions-tea-party-prote/

    Count the people in the picture as you wish, but the DC Fire Department has stuck with its own estimate.

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  4. @RavingDave

    What planet are you living on ? Just the Numbers from the Metro riders for that Saturday are a quarter million.

    Actually, the Metro ridership for the day of the event was only marginally above an average weekend. The number you are citing has no source because it is false.

    Indiana University using a computer program puts the crowd at 1.2 million.

    This is just a straight up lie. No basis in fact whatsoever. Just a lie that Glenn Beck told.

    A woman at the National Parks service said it was the largest crowd they had ever seen. *I* personally spoke with a DC Police officer during the rally, and he informed me that his superiors were using 1.5 million in their estimates.

    It would be great if you could cite a source - because the person you are quoting was talking about Obama's inauguration - not the TP protest.

    I appreciate your passion, but spreading lies is no way to rebuild the credibility of the right.

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Peace.